The Deflation Thesis
Jordi Visser, former CIO at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, brings a contrarian perspective to the Bitcoin debate. While most Bitcoiners focus on inflation hedging, Visser argues the bigger story is deflation—and it's bullish for Bitcoin.
Elon Musk keeps talking about a "supersonic tsunami" coming. But here's the twist: Musk believes we'll actually be begging the Fed to print more money because deflationary forces from AI will be so strong. Truflation sits at 1.55%—down from 3% in December 2024. The government says 2.7%. Reality says otherwise.
Long Scarcity, Short Abundance
Visser's framework is simple: in a world of AI-driven abundance, you want to own what can't be made abundant. Code-based businesses—the Mag 7, software companies, anything built on programming—face existential deflationary pressure. Their moats are being destroyed.
But Bitcoin? Its moat is belief. Hundreds of millions of people have chosen it as a store of value. You can't flip a switch and make Bitcoin abundant. Same with copper, silver, gold, energy. These are the investments for the next decade.
The numbers support the rotation: Bitcoin is outperforming Mag 7 by 10% in two weeks. Small caps, sensitive to commodities and PMIs, could outperform the S&P 500 by 3-4x this year as massive dollars flee tech.
Why Young People "Not Caring" Is Irrelevant
Pomp raised the concern that 18-year-olds aren't into Bitcoin. Visser's response: 18-year-olds don't control money. They're gambling on meme coins, looking for 10x in an hour. Store of value isn't part of their mentality until they have their first child, their first real job, and money they're scared of losing.
The demographic that matters: older people extending their lives through AI-enabled healthcare, sitting on $800 trillion in fiat assets, with zero Bitcoin exposure. When disruption hits, that's where the real allocation comes from.
Humanoids Are Coming Faster Than You Think
Dave Blundin, who was previously skeptical about humanoid timelines, visited Tesla's Gigafactory and came away blown away. The vertical integration goes down to aluminum smelting—taking old cans and turning them into Teslas on-site. Robots are already making robots.
Meanwhile, China has "dark factories"—zero human workers. The Ford CEO visited and was "scared to death" for US automakers. Jason Calacanis predicts people will forget Tesla made cars because the humanoid opportunity is so massive.
The implication for investors: have you incorporated humanoids into your investment thesis? If not, you're already behind.
GDP Doesn't Matter Anymore
Last quarter had 7-8% nominal GDP growth. Job creation? Zero. That's never happened before. Visser argues GDP became irrelevant when software took over the economy—Alan Greenspan warned about this in 1999. With AI, it's completely useless as a metric.
Profit margins stay high because efficiency gains aren't captured in GDP. The stock market goes higher while the official economy metrics mean nothing. We need new measurements for an AI-driven world.